Decision making with uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper we discuss decision making based on incomplete knowledge. Asthe results of our decisions have always some uncertainties in these cases, we developeda method to measure the advantages brought by those possible solutions of our problem,which makes our decision making problem easier. Our proposal is entirely formulizedwithin the so called classical two valued logic, so it has a solid foundation. Basic notionsof various items are defined formally; formulas of supporting degree and safe supporting degree for decision making are discussed in details. Uncertainty of a proposition is clearly defined and the evaluation of such an uncertainty is clearly presented within our proposal without anything else. With the right evaluation of uncertain evidences, decision making with uncertain evidences is considered, which is also completely done within our proposal. Examples in the paper are comprehensively exhibited, which show that our proposal is reasonable and can be implemented by computers. © 2005 by International Federation for Information Processing.