Defying the Rally During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Abstract

Objective: Do people set aside their partisan differences and rally around elected officials during a pandemic? President Trump's delegation of responsibility to the states during the COVID-19 pandemic placed governors on the frontlines of the battle; some have shined and garnered positive national attention, others have wilted under the pressure of the national spotlight. Methods: We use regression discontinuity design and exploit a discontinuity in the state's political events to assess the support of a governor's response to the pandemic. Results: Using survey data from Florida's registered voters, we find that Governor DeSantis's approval dropped by 7 percentage points following his “Safer at Home” order press conference on April 1. Conclusion: Our results suggest that under certain circumstances partisanship can blunt a “rally around the flag” effect. This finding provides context to understanding when and under which circumstances elected officials can expect increases (or decreases) in public support.