Analysis and Prediction of the Coupling and Coordinated Development of Green Finance–Environmental Protection in China

Abstract

Green finance is an important tool to help China accelerate the process of environmental protection, but the level of coupling and coordinated development between it and environmental protection has not yet been explored. This study measures the coupling and coordinated level of the green finance–environmental protection system (GE system) in 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020 and uses the improved GM (1,1) model based on background value optimization to predict the future development trend of the coupling and coordinated level of the green finance–environmental protection system. The results show that: (1) the national average coupling and coordinated level of the green finance–environmental protection system has been in mild disharmony from 2011 to 2020 all the time, and only Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province among them have reached the coordination level. (2) The coupling and coordinated level of the green finance–environmental protection system based on regional differences has a large gap, ranking in order: Eastern region > Central region > Western region > Northeast region, where the first-ranked Eastern region leads the rise, while the last-ranked Northeast region even shows a decreasing trend year by year. (3) The national average coupling and coordinated level will reach the coordination level in 2077, which fails to get ahead of the “2060 carbon neutrality” goal. Additionally, from the regional division, the Eastern region will be the first to reach the coordination level (2040), the Central region will reach the coordination level in 2043, the Western region is difficult to reach the coordination level, and the Northeast region shows the deterioration of coupling and coordinated degree, and the regional differences are still obvious. This study aims to reduce regional disparities, improve the coupling and coordinated development level of the green finance–environmental protection system nationwide, and implement the process of green development in China.