Establishment and Validation of a Comprehensive Prognostic Model for Patients With HNSCC Metastasis

Abstract

Objective: To identify biomarkers related to head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) metastasis and establish a prognostic model for patients with HNSCC. Methods: HNSCC mRNA expression data of metastasis and non-metastatic samples were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. After screening the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the two datasets, a prognostic model, including clinical factors and biomarkers, was established, and verified in 36 samples of HNSCC by quantitative real-time transcription (qRT)-PCR. Gene Ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Gene sets enrichment analysis (GSEA) were consulted to explore the functions of the DEGs. Results: In total, 108 DEGs were identified. GSEA, GO, and KEGG analyses showed that these DEGs were mainly involved in the proliferation and metastasis of HNSCC. Six genes that were significantly related to metastasis, immune cell infiltration and prognosis were further identified to construct a prognostic gene signature. The reliability of the gene signature was verified in 36 samples of HNSCC. A prognostic model, including tumor stage, risk level, and a nomogram for prediction were further established. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, decision curve analysis (DCA), C-index, and calibration plots showed that the model and nomogram perform well. Conclusion: We constructed a six-gene signature and a nomogram with high performance in predicting the prognosis of patients with HNSCC metastasis.