Proposal of a design support method for sustainability scenarios 1st report: Designing forecasting scenarios

Abstract

Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.