Interannual variability of Central European mean temperature in January-February and its relation to large-scale circulation

Abstract

The Central European temperature distribution field, as given by 11 stations [Fano, Hamburg, Potsdam, Jena, Frankfurt, Uccle, Hohenpeissenberg, Praha (Prague), Wien (Vienna), Zurich and Geneve (Geneva)], is analyzed with respect to its year-to-year variability. January-February (JF) average temperatures are considered for the interval 1901-1980. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals that the JF temperature variability is almost entirely controlled by one entirely positive EOF. The relationship of the temperature field to large-scale circulation, represented by the North Atlantic/European sea-level pressure (SLP) field, is investigated by means of a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Two CCA pairs are identified which account for most of the temperature year-to-year variance. The CCA pairs fail, however, to consistently link the long-term temperature trends to changes in the large-scale circulation. -from Authors