Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts for river basins

Abstract

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: i) it is compatible with the forecaster's judgmental process, which involves meteorological inference and probabilistic reasoning; ii) it can be input directly into a hydrologic model that produces river stage forecasts (at present); and iii) it provides information sufficient for producing probabilistic river stage forecasts (in the future). -from Authors