Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Abstract

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future. The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change. Introduction: cyclical and world-systemic aspects of economic reality with respect to contemporary crisis -- Kondratieff waves in the world system perspective -- Interaction between Kondratieff waves and juglar cycles -- From Kondratieff waves to Akamatsu waves? A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles -- Conclusion: new Kondratieff waves and forthcoming global social transformation. Preliminary Discussion -- Introductory Notes -- Some Preliminary Conclusions -- Juglar Cycles as Structural Elements of the K-Waves -- How Many J-Cycles Are There per a K-Wave PhaseAn Analysis of Empirical Data -- Verbal Model of K-Waves -- General Outline -- Notes on Dynamics -- The Main Principles for the Development of the K-Wave Model -- Phase Alteration in the K-Wave Model -- Relationships between К-Waves and J-Cycles -- К-Waves and J-Cycle Clusters -- J-Cycle Clusterization -- On the Correlation between J-Cycles and K-Wave Phases -- General Causes and Mechanisms of Economic Cycles -- Mechanism of Influence of J-Cycles on the Temporal Rhythm of K-Wave Alteration -- Emergence and Resolution of Societal Structural Crisis within A- and B-Clusters of J-Cycles -- Additional Notes -- An Example of More Active Social Activities During K-Wave B-Phases in Comparison with K-Wave A-Phases -- Social Innovations as a Factor of K-Wave Interphase Transitions at the Level of Individual Societies, the Level of Intersocietal Interactions, and the World System Level -- What Limits the Length of the K-Wave A-Phases-- Exhaustion of Growth Factors -- Excessive Business Optimism about the Prospects for Growth and the Revaluation of Assets -- The Long Depression Pause Emerging within Border J-Cycles and the Change of Development Strategy -- The World System Dimension -- Modernization and World-System Socioeconomic Crises -- World-System Crises and Obstacles for the Emergence of the World-System Innovations. World-System Innovations and Their Delays -- How Does the K-Wave Synchronicity in the World System Emerge-- General Characteristics of K-Wave Evolution, Factors, Mechanisms, and Indicators -- How and Why Do the Main K-Wave Dynamics Indicators Change-- General Direction of Changes -- Change of the Role of the State.