Effects of CO 2 -induoed climatic changes on soowpack and streamflow

Abstract

Atmospheric concentrations of carbondioxide (CO2) may double during the next century, causing changes in the Earth's climate. Warming of up to 4°C, slight cooling, and 10% changes in precipitation have been projected. Researchers havestudied the possible impacts these changes mayhave on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, but little emphasis has been placed on snow accumulation and melt. In this study, theeffects of climatic change on streamflow froma snowmelt-dominated basin in southwestern Montana, USA, are investigated. The National Weather Service River Forecast System model (NWSRFS) was first calibrated using data for the1973–1984 period. Daily temperature and precipitation values were then changed, andthe model ran againto assess the effects on snowpack and streamflow of some possible climatic changes. Results indicate that streamflowmay vary by from −22 to +45% depending on the combination of climatic changes imposed. © 1990 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.