Crecimiento demográfico y cambio climático

Abstract

The world will continue growing. The latest United Nations projections don’t anticipate a turning point for population growth in the course of the current century, but it’s estimated that, the given recorded demographic trends for mid-century show that we will be around 9 thousand 300 million people on the planet. The demographic dynamic is the main driving force of global environmental change, since it’s a pressure to occupy more and more space to exploit more resources to produce more food, to consume more water, to pollute more, to use more energy and to emit more greenhouse effect gases (1).The decrease of population growth is a necessary requirement to reduce carbon emissions in the future; however, it’s objected if this can lead to "population control" programs in developing countries. And as we know, these countries would be severely affected by climate change; from this perspective has been identified at least one of three possible interaction ways between demographic trends and the climate change effects: (i) a quick deterioration of the natural resources’ sources, (ii) the increased demand of scarce resources and (iii) the increasing human vulnerability to extreme meteorological phenomena (2).Research results indicate that there would offer more voluntary access possibilities for family planning services to poor communities in less developed countries. This approach prioritizes the wellness of poor affected communities because of the climate change, unlike the other position that proposed reducing population growth to limit the increase in global carbon emissions (2).Population growth increases goods and services demand, certainly involves increased environmental pressure. At the same time, economic growth, which is considered as the best way to reduce the population growth rate, it’s also associated with a severe natural resources degradation. Up to now, in developing countries the economic growth mechanisms have been unable to reduce population pressure and unequal economic development, but at the same time these mechanisms tend to reinforce the environmental degradation factors resulting from economic activity. It is what we call the economic growth paradox.Two solutions are normally expected to limit population growth in the third world: the first, is based on the control of the fertility rate and the other on economic growth. In theory, these two solutions must be complementary, but in practice they are often contradictory. Although there have been some good results, the first solution, based on fertility control, not only faces many economic, social and cultural barriers that severely limits its application in poor countries, but also seems unable to face the demographic problem size. The second solution, such as the economic growth, increasingly widespread, is also open to some basic objections (3).Discussions about climate change generally tend to focus on carbon emissions of a person throughout his/her life, these are important and essential issues to consider; however, a further challenge that we face is population growth and increasing resources global consumption (4).According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected that climate change intensify the stress currently experienced by water resources, due to population growth, economic change, the land uses and, in particular to the urbanization. On a regional scale, mountain snowbanks, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role regard to the fresh water availability. According to projections, widespread mass losses of glaciers and snow cover reductions over recent decades would be accelerated during the XXI century, reducing water availability and hydroelectric potential, and changing flows seasonality in regions supplied by meltwater from the main mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where live currently more than the sixth part of the world population (5).Peru, one of the countries which is being affected by climate change, in 2013 has a population of 30 475 144 inhabitants and the Junin department 1 331 253 (6), a high percentage concentrated in the urban area and rural area population devoted to agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by this phenomenon.Undoubtedly, population growth is a factor that accelerates the climate change in the Central Andes of Peru can be found several cases in which this growth has a negative impact. It is the case of Chinchaycocha Lake, polluted by mine tailings and the increasing of the biodiversity exploitation demand by the communities. Also, there is the Mantaro River pollution with wastewater and solid waste dumped from the various Mantaro basin districts, especially high and medium, polluted water are used for generating electricity from the Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo Hydroelectric Central, located in Huancavelica. Another worrying case is the accelerating glacier mass retreat in the Huaytapallana, due to the increasing tourism, cultural, pastoral and some others activities in the area (7).