The Demographic Transition and Development in Africa

Abstract

This was a national, capacity-building vulnerability assessment and profiling project carried out in 16 carefully targeted drought-prone districts in 1999-2002 by the Ethiopian Federal government in collaboration with regional multisectoral government counterparts and university researchers. It used a coordinated, consensus-building approach of assessing interdisciplinary and multilevel aspects of population/food insecurity and disease interrelationships In the process, both Malthusian and Boserupian theories were used to hypothesize that demographic change and response are important risks as well as appropriate adaptations to frequent natural and human hazards. To compliment the scarcity and unreliability of secondary data and information systems from relevant ministries and international organizations, primary data were collected on a multistage, stratified random sample of 10,000 households in 93 communities in 16 drought-prone districts, and spread out in the four most populated regions. The most demographically vulnerable households were found to be either newly formed, or old age and/or female headed, or with many siblings under 10 years of age. The most important assets for household resilience to drought continue to be access to arable land, draft animals and adult labor Household coping strategies and resilience to structural vulnerability were common, with off-farm labor, temporary migration and income diversification as the more successful adaptations. This participatory research finds support for neither the Malthusian nor Boserupian effects, exclusively: there seems to be no direct and consistent causal relationship between crude population-land pressure, rapid population growth and vulnerability to food and nutrition insecurity. The effect of population density is a combination of contextual, technological, organizational, infrastructural and ecological factors and conditions. There are such large inter-district and agro-ecological variation in different types vulnerability that require contextual and micro-level assessment to establish valid criteria for targeting of more effective famine prevention, risk reduction and climate adaptation programs. As part of poverty and food insecurity/disaster risk reduction policies, demographic strategies would include labor migration, carefully planned resettlement, small and large urban center development, and delayed transitions to adulthood and childbearing.