Do voters respond to relative economic performance? Evidence from survey experiments

Abstract

An emerging literature suggests that economic voting is driven by incumbents' relative performance, that is, how the national economy performed relative to recent past outcomes in the country (domestic comparison) and in a cross-national perspective (international comparison). While scholars have presented macro-level evidence in this direction, to date there has been scant micro-level evidence as to whether voters' evaluations of incumbent competence are shaped by relative performance. This article contributes to the literature by presenting two population-based survey experiments fielded in the United Kingdom and in Istanbul, Turkey. Both British and Turkish voters' evaluations of incumbent competence are affected by information about how well the economy performed in domestic and international comparisons, though Turkish voters seem to react to international performance comparison to a lesser degree than to a domestic one. In both countries highly educated individuals are more responsive to the incumbent's relative international performance. These results provide support for macro-level analyses that highlight the importance of incumbents' relative performance for economic voting.