Prediction of Land Change for Oil Palm Plantations in Penajam Subdistrict, Penajam Paser Utara Regency, East Kalimantan Province

Abstract

Penajam Subdistrict is the center of government and economy of the North Penajam Paser Regency. It has an area of oil palm plantations that continues to grow every year. The massive growth of oil palm plantations has resulted in converting agricultural land to oil palm plantations. The transformation of land function occurs because oil palm plantations are considered more profitable than planting rice. This study aims to analyze and predict land-use changes for oil palm in Penajam Subdistrict in 2031. The method used in this study uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach with the CA-Markov prediction model. The drivers of land-use change as input to the CA-Markov model consist of distance from the road, distance from the river, distance from the forest, elevation, and slope. The results showed an increase in the area of oil palm plantations and a decrease in the forest area. The Kappa test results show a value of 88%, which means it has an adequate accuracy level. In 2031, the location of oil palm plantations in the Penajam Regency will reach 11,542.57 ha or 23,1%.