Research on the forecasting of construction accidents with the cubic exponential smoothing method

Abstract

Construction accidents occur frequently and cause great loss to construction enterprises, the whole industry and the society. Therefore, it is significant to forecast the death tolls of construction engineering accidents to provide decisive reference for development of Chinese construction accident prevention. Being compared with other forecasting method, exponential smoothing method is relatively simple, convenient, and does not need huge volume of historical data. The cubic exponential smoothing model is set up in this paper, and the death tolls of the housing construction and municipal engineering accident from 1988 to 2012 are chosen to predict the construction accidents. The forecasting value result is very close to the original value from 1999 to 2012, which confirms it is reasonable and feasible to use this model to forecast the death tolls of construction engineering accidents. Then, the forecasting values can be predicted in 2013 and 2014, which are 527 and 421. The cubic exponential smoothing method is a reliable predictive model, and it can forecast death tolls in short term. The forecast result can provide reference to apply effective measures and ways to improve the serious construction accidents situation now. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.