A VECM approach to detangling growth, exports, imports and FDI knot in selected CEE countries

Abstract

The authors analyze the relationship between GDP, imports-coverage ratio (NEX), FDI and gross fixed capital formation (GFC) in selected CEE countries by using an error correction model. The empirical results confirm a positive long-run influence of the imports-coverage ratio, FDI and GFC on GDP growth for all of the countries, except Croatia. In the case of Croatia, there is a significant negative feedback between FDI and GDP growth in the long run and a positive one in the short run. By using B. Horvat’s research on this subject, a logical explanation of this sort of paradoxical behavior is suggested. The second uncommon result is the long-run positive relationship between GDP and the imports-coverage ratio. The obtained result speaks in favor of a conservative approach to running a national economy, where the current account and the imports-coverage ratio are taken into account and the economic growth is achieved through slower but stable, internally driven growth.