Analysis of the Prediction Quality of Technology Developments Based on Gartner Hype Cycles for Emerging Technologies

Abstract

Companies spend a lot of money on advice and reports from consultancy companies. Gartner is one of these companies, which publishes regularly the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. Gartner wants to support companies to recognize when new technologies make promises. How is it possible to “discern the hype from what’s commercially viable? And when will such claims pay off, if at all?” Missing a trend or investing in a non-prevalent trend will have a negative impact on companies. However, how good is the prediction quality of the Gartner Hype Cycle? Therefore, we analyzed the Gartner Hype Cycles of the last 15 years. We analyzed different aspects, e.g. the occurrence of technologies in the hype cycles of different years and the prediction of the phase curve of technologies. We found out that many technologies appear only once in the hype cycle and disappear quickly. We did not analyze these technologies more in detail. We looked only at technologies, which appear at least twice. From these technologies round about one third show ‘inconsistencies’ in the considered aspects.