Probability, statistics, and law

Abstract

In recent decades probability and statistics have gradually made their way into the realm of law. This has been favoured by the proliferation of forensic techniques including identification by means of fingerprints, DNA evidence, marks on bullets, etc., and by the ever-increasing amount of epidemiological and medical data, and the refinement of risk analysis. These developments have forced those involved in forensic matters, particularly if acting in court, to pay increasing attention to science. Important steps in that direction were taken by a number of court decisions including the 1993 U.S. Supreme Court’s Daubert decision (Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals) which ruled that the standard for admitting expert testimony in federal courts should meet the demands of scientific method. A few years later, the 2000 revised version of the Federal Rules of Evidence fixed the requirements of reliability and relevance for the admissibility of testimony in court, adding that fulfilment of such requirements depends on compliance with scientific methodology.1 This obviously brings probability and statistics to the foreground.