The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?

Abstract

A companion study compares the out-of-sample fit of various structural and time series exchange rate models, and finds that the random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for 1970's dollar/mark, dollar/pound, dollar/yen and trade-weight dollar exchange rates. The structural models perform poorly ever though their forecasts are purged of all uncertainty concerning the future paths of their explanatory variables by using actual realized values.