Predicting inpatient mortality in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: A machine learning approach

Abstract

Background and Aim: Data are lacking on predicting inpatient mortality (IM) in patients admitted for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). IM is a critical outcome; however, difficulty in its prediction exists due to infrequent occurrence. We assessed IM predictors and developed a predictive model for IM using machine-learning (ML). Methods: Using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database (2005–2017), we extracted adults admitted for IBD. After ML-guided predictor selection, we trained and internally validated multiple algorithms, targeting minimum sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio (+LR) ≥ 80% and ≥ 3, respectively. Diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) compared algorithm performance. The best performing algorithm was additionally trained and validated for an IBD-related surgery sub-cohort. External validation was done using NIS 2018. Results: In 398 426 adult IBD admissions, IM was 0.32% overall, and 0.87% among the surgical cohort (n = 40 784). Increasing age, ulcerative colitis, IBD-related surgery, pneumonia, chronic lung disease, acute kidney injury, malnutrition, frailty, heart failure, blood transfusion, sepsis/septic shock and thromboembolism were associated with increased IM. The QLattice algorithm, provided the highest performance model (+LR: 3.2, 95% CI 3.0–3.3; area-under-curve [AUC]:0.87, 85% sensitivity, 73% specificity), distinguishing IM patients by 15.6-fold when comparing high to low-risk patients. The surgical cohort model (+LR: 8.5, AUC: 0.94, 85% sensitivity, 90% specificity), distinguished IM patients by 49-fold. Both models performed excellently in external validation. An online calculator (https://clinicalc.ai/im-ibd/) was developed allowing bedside model predictions. Conclusions: An online prediction-model calculator captured > 80% IM cases during IBD-related admissions, with high discriminatory effectiveness. This allows for risk stratification and provides a basis for assessing interventions to reduce mortality in high-risk patients.