Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring Model for Early Prediction of Severe Colon Ischemia

Abstract

Background: Colon ischemia (CI) is injury to the intestines secondary to insufficient blood flow. Its clinical severity can range from mild to life-threatening. Aims: To investigate predictive risk factors for CI and propose a scoring model for severe outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of patients admitted to Chungnam National University Hospital from January 2010 to December 2018. CI was defined as severe when patients required surgery immediately or after initial conservative management, death occurred after hospitalization, or symptoms persisted after 2 weeks. By controlling for possible confounders from the logistic regression analysis, we obtained a new risk scoring model for the early prediction of severe CI. Furthermore, using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), we assessed the accuracy of the model. Results: A total of 274 patients endoscopically diagnosed with CI were included, of whom 181 had severe CI. In the multivariate analysis, tachycardia, elevated C-reactive protein, Favier endoscopic classification stage ≥ 2, and history of hypertension were independently and significantly associated with severe CI. The AUROC of the model was 0.749. Conclusions: This risk scoring model based on the presence of tachycardia, elevated C-reactive protein level, unfavorable endoscopic findings by Favier’s classification, and the history of hypertension could be used to predict severe CI outcomes at an early stage.