The development of a storm surge model including the effect of wave set-up for operational forecasting

Abstract

A new storm surge model that includes the effect of wave set-up has been developed. This model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and the third generation wave model MRI-III originally developed at MRI. The wave set-up effect is included in the storm surge calculation via parameterized radiation stress from the calculated wave spectra in the wave model. Additional complex mechanisms are not considered in this model in order to facilitate operational use. This model yields satisfactory accuracy for storm surges occurring on ocean coasts. A large storm surge of almost 2.5m caused by Typhoon (TY) Kirogi (0003) was observed at Yaene tide station on Hachijo Island, located in the western Pacific Ocean. The conventional storm surge model can simulate a far lower value (a maximum storm surge of 0.51m); the new model simulates a more realistic value (2.22m), which is 1.71m higher, by considering the wave set-up effect. However, our result still underestimated the measured surge. © 2006 by the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute.