Characterization of the Threat Resulting from Plant Pathogen Use as Anti-crop Bioweapons: An EU Perspective on Agroterrorism

Abstract

This chapter provides an analysis specific for Europe of the risk of plant pathogens being used as anti-crop bioweapons, taking into account both the biological and human dimensions of the threat. An historical review of anti-crop bioweap-ons lays down the starting point of the characterization and contextualizes the threat in Europe. Four types of threat are developed and provide a structure for the analysis: (1) from military state programs to allegations of attacks; (2) from 'rogue state' hidden programs to claimed terror attacks; (3) biocrime, sabotage, private allegations and conspiracy theories on social media; (4) from the overzealous application of phytosanitary measures to the deliberate introduction of a regulated pest to justify trade protectionism. A database consisting of 21 important target crops and of 63 potentially dangerous pests (selected from a list of 570 pests) are combined with the development and categorization of 'scenarios'. This is proposed as a starting point of a prospective approach to quantify the risk of agroterrorism in Europe. Four challenges ('Convergence Tactics', 'Constraints', 'Climate', and 'Conspiracy') are suggested to be the most important determinants of the forthcoming evolution of the threat. The prospect for Europe to successfully confront the increasing risk and challenges for the next decade is discussed.