Early-stage economic analysis of research-based comprehensive genomic sequencing for advanced cancer care

Abstract

Genomic research is driving discovery for future population benefit. Limited evidence exists on immediate patient and health system impacts of research participation. This study uses real-world data and quasi-experimental matching to examine early-stage cost and health impacts of research-based genomic sequencing. British Columbia’s Personalized OncoGenomics (POG) single-arm program applies whole genome and transcriptome analysis (WGTA) to characterize genomic landscapes in advanced cancers. Our cohort includes POG patients enrolled between 2014 and 2015 and 1:1 genetic algorithm–matched usual care controls. We undertake a cost consequence analysis and estimate 1-year effects of WGTA on patient management, patient survival, and health system costs reported in 2015 Canadian dollars. WGTA costs are imputed and forecast using system of equations modeling. We use Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to explore survival differences and inverse probability of censoring weighted linear regression to estimate mean 1-year survival times and costs. Non-parametric bootstrapping simulates sampling distributions and enables scenario analysis, revealing drivers of incremental costs, survival, and net monetary benefit for assumed willingness to pay thresholds. We identified 230 POG patients and 230 matched controls for cohort inclusion. The mean period cost of research-funded WGTA was $26,211 (SD: $14,191). Sequencing costs declined rapidly, with WGTA forecasts hitting $13,741 in 2021. The incremental healthcare system effect (non-research expenditures) was $5203 (95% CI: 75, 10,424) compared to usual care. No overall survival differences were observed, but outcome heterogeneity was present. POG patients receiving WGTA-informed treatment experienced incremental survival gains of 2.49 months (95% CI: 1.32, 3.64). Future cost consequences became favorable as WGTA cost drivers declined and WGTA-informed treatment rates improved to 60%. Our study demonstrates the ability of real-world data to support evaluations of only-in-research health technologies. We identify situations where precision oncology research initiatives may produce survival benefit at a cost that is within healthcare systems’ willingness to pay. This economic evidence informs the early-stage healthcare impacts of precision oncology research.