Intelligence Constraints on Terrorist Network Plots

Abstract

Since 9/11, the western intelligence and law enforcement services have managed to interdict the great majority of plannedattacks against their home countries. Network analysis shows that there are important intelligence constraints on the numberand complexity of terrorist plots. If two many terrorists are involved in plots at a given time, a tipping point is reachedwhereby it becomes progressively easier for the dots to be joined and for the conspirators to be arrested, and for the aggregateevidence to secure convictions. Implications of this analysis are presented for the campaign to win hearts and minds.