Hybrid Models for Weather Parameter Forecasting

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to compare hybrid conjunction models with conventional models for the reduction of errors in weather forecasting. Besides the simple models like RBF model, SMO model, and LibSVM model, different hybrid conjunction models have been used for forecasting under different schemes. The forecasts from these models are further compared on the basis of errors calculated and time taken by the hybrid models and simple models in order to forecast weather parameters. In this paper, conjunction models over the convectional models are designed for forecasting the weather parameters for the reduction of error. India is a tropical country with variations in weather conditions. The objective is to build a conjunction model with less error to forecast weather parameters. A hybrid conjunction model is developed and analysed for different weather parameters for different metropolitan cities of India. Performance measurement is analysed for weather parameters. It is observed that, on the basis of error comparison and time taken by the models, the hybrid wavelet-neuro-RBF model gives better results as compared to the other models due to lower values of determined errors, better performance, and lesser time taken. The study becomes significant as weather forecasting with accuracy is a complex task along with the reduction of prediction error by the application of different models and schemes. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid model is helpful for forecasting and making policies in advance for the betterment of the human being, farmers, tourists, and so on as in all these activities, weather forecast plays an important role.