An evaluation of spatial capture-recapture models applied to ungulate non-invasive genetic sampling data

Abstract

Non-invasive genetic sampling (NGS) methods are becoming a mainstay in wildlife monitoring and can be used with spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods to estimate population density. Yet SCR based on NGS remains relatively underused for ungulate population monitoring, despite the importance of robust density estimates for this ecologically and economically important group of species. This may be in part attributed to biological characteristics of ungulate species and data collection methods that lead to violations of SCR model assumptions. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the robustness of SCR methods to spatially heterogeneous density (i.e., configuration of individuals into groups of variable sizes and composition), individual heterogeneity in space-use patterns, and adaptive sampling (i.e., variation in detectability across space that correlates with density). We evaluated each violation separately and in combination. We parameterized our simulations based on published information and preliminary analyses of NGS data sets of 3 ungulate species: chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra), red deer (Cervus elaphus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa). While SCR estimates were robust to grouping and adaptive sampling, abundance estimates could be negatively biased (up to 10% in our simulations) in the presence of unaccounted individual heterogeneity in space use. The degree to which abundance estimates were underestimated depended mostly on the amount of variation in space use and detectability among age classes. This bias was also accompanied by a reduction in precision and coverage probability of the SCR estimators. We discuss the implications of these findings, possible approaches to identify problematic violations in available data sets (goodness-of-fit tests), and potential further developments of SCR models to ensure reliable abundance estimates for ungulate populations from NGS data.