Model calibration/parameter estimation techniques and conceptual model error

Abstract

Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field. Machine generated contents note: Theme I Model Conceptualization -- Theme II Verification Of Models -- Theme III Calibration And Sensitivity Analysis -- Theme IV Evaluation Of Models -- Theme V Communicating Modelling Results And Uncertainties -- Theme VI Decision Making On The Basis Of Model Prediction -- Case Study I Soil Carbon Dynamics -- Case Study II Global Climate Change -- Case Study III Natural Attenuation Of Contamimants And Risk Assessment.