The AEMET-γ3SREPS over the Antarctic Peninsula and the impact of kilometric-resolution EPS on logistic activities on the continent

Abstract

Kilometric-resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) will be the new state-of-the-art forecasting tools for short-range prediction in the following decade. Their value will be even greater in Antarctica due to the increasingly demanding weather forecasts for logistic services. During the 2018-2019 austral summer (1 December-31 March), coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere Special Observation Period of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), the 2.5km AEMET-Î3SREPS was operationally integrated over the Antarctic Peninsula. In particular, the Antarctic version of Î3SREPS comes up with crossing four non-hydrostatic convection-permitting NWP models at 2.5km with three global NWP driving models as boundary conditions. The Î3SREPS forecasting system has been validated in comparison with ECMWF EPS. It is concluded that Î3SREPS has an added value to ECMWF EPS due to both its higher resolution and its multi-boundary conditions and multi-NWP model approach. Î3SREPS performance has a positive impact on logistic activities at research stations and its design may contribute to polar prediction research.