Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Abstract

In this study, we document the air temperature and precipitation changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the period 2041-2070 in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) by means of Eta driven by HadCM3 climate model output, considering the variation among its four ensemble members. The main purpose is to support studies of vulnerability and adaptation policy to climate change. In relation to future projections of temperature extremes, the model indicates an increase in average minimum (maximum) temperature of between +1.1˚C and +1.4˚C (+1.0˚C and +1.5˚C) in the state by 2070, and it could reach maximum values of between +2.0˚C and +3.5˚C (+2.5˚C and +4.5˚C).