The price of retribution: evidence from the willingness to pay for short-term prison sentences compared to community service orders

Abstract

Objectives: The objective of this study is to estimate the price of retribution. Methods: Based on administrative data on all sentences in the Netherlands in 2012 and recidivism from 2012 to 2018, we first investigate whether community service orders are more effective in reducing recidivism than short-term imprisonment using an instrumental variable approach. Next, we compute the cost savings that could be obtained by replacing short-term prison sanctions with equivalent community service orders. Results: We find that short-term prison sanctions lead to an increase in recidivism and an increase in the costs of sanctioning. We find that Dutch society pays about 400 million euros per year for retribution. This is about 21,000 euros per sanctioned offense per year and about 45 euros per taxpayer per year in the Netherlands. This is most likely a lower bound. Conclusions: Our study reveals the willingness to pay for retribution as implied by judicial choices.