Delphi Analysis Method and Its Application in Qualitative Prediction of Aircraft Collision Unsafe Event for Air Traffic Control

Abstract

To predict the safety situation of air traffic control, it is inadequate to only use some quantitative prediction method, which can not take into account the knowledge and experience of the experts. We should also pay attention to the important role of some qualitative prediction method. Delphi analysis method based on the opinion and consultation of the experts is proposed to predict the unsafe events in the field of air traffic control. The example shows that Delphi analysis method can be used to solve the problem of safety prediction in air traffic control.