Can we do better than the grid survey: Optimal synoptic surveys in presence of variable uncertainty and decorrelation scales

Abstract

Regular grid (“lawnmower”) survey is a classical strategy for synoptic sampling of the ocean. Is it possible to achieve a more effective use of available resources if one takes into account a priori knowledge about variability in magnitudes of uncertainty and decorrelation scales? In this article, we develop and compare the performance of several path‐planning algorithms: optimized “lawnmower,” a graph‐search algorithm (A*), and a fully nonlinear genetic algorithm. We use the machinery of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) to quantify the ability of a vehicle fleet to synoptically map distribution of phytoplankton off the central California coast. We used satellite and in situ data to specify covariance information required by the BLUE estimator. Computational experiments showed that two types of sampling strategies are possible: a suboptimal space‐filling design (produced by the “lawnmower” and the A* algorithms) and an optimal uncertainty‐aware design (produced by the genetic algorithm). Unlike the space‐filling designs that attempted to cover the entire survey area, the optimal design focused on revisiting areas of high uncertainty. Results of the multivehicle experiments showed that fleet performance predictors, such as cumulative speed or the weight of the fleet, predicted the performance of a homogeneous fleet well; however, these were poor predictors for comparing the performance of different platforms. Survey‐planning algorithms of various complexity are investigated Nongrid surveys are beneficial in the presence of strongly variable uncertainty Upperbound on survey performance is characterized