Systems dynamic modeling on sustainable apples agriculture

Abstract

History shows the long process of apple plants originating from subtropical regions adapting to Indonesia's tropical climate until its popularity is increasingly marginalized and replaced with other commodities, especially in Batu City, Indonesia. To understand problems and find solutions, we can use Systems dynamics. This study aims to obtain a policy scenario that encourages sustainable apple farming. Data is collected from the local government and BPS City or Province so that the selected variables follow the specific location. The system approach is used to identify needs, problem formulation, preparation of input-output diagrams, cause-effect diagrams, and stock-flow diagrams. A series of scenarios are created and tested through simulation to understand the system's dynamic behavior better and obtain the desired output. The best scenario was chosen, namely by replanting 15% of old plants each year, using integrated agriculture with 13 sheep brooders, reducing land change by farmers keep the land if the annual income Rp 200 million and construction of special settlement starting in 2029, LED by integrating tourist ticket and hotels with 1 kg apple fruits also increasing health support for students.