Robust decision making for a climate-resilient development of the agricultural sector in Nigeria

Abstract

Adaptation options that work reasonably well across an entire range of potential outcomes are shown to be preferable in a context of deep uncertainty. This is because robust practices that are expected to perform satisfactorily across the full range of possible future conditions, are preferable to those that are the best ones, but just in one specific scenario. Thus, using a Robust Decision Making Approach in Nigerian agriculture may increase resilience to climate change. To illustrate, the expansion of irrigation might be considered as a complementary strategy to conservation techniques and a shift in sowing/planting dates to enhance resilience of agriculture. However, given large capital expenditures, irrigation must consider climate trends and variability. Using historical climate records is insufficient to size capacity and can result in “regrets” when the investment is undersized/oversized, if the climate turns out to be drier/wetter than expected. Rather utilizing multiple climate outcomes to make decisions will decrease “regrets.” This chapter summarizes the main results from a study titled “Toward climate-resilient development in Nigeria” funded by the Word Bank (See Cervigni et al. 2013).