COP26: more challenges than achievements

Abstract

“Conference of the Parties” or COPs is a global climate summit which was started by United Nations (UN) to bring all the countries of the world together in order to escalate goals of Paris Agreement (2015) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (a treaty that came into force in 1994) (https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/COP26-Explained.pdf). This year (2021) was the 26th annual summit of COPs, hence given the name COP26 and was held at Glasgow, United Kingdom (UK) in partnership with Italy. COP26 is one of the biggest and most significant summits on climate change since the Paris Agreement in 2015) (https://www.nationalgrid.com/responsibility/environment/cop26). Paris Agreement was an international treaty on climate change and was taken up by 196 Parties at COP21where countries were determined to put forward the plans on how to reduce their emissions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. The main target was to restrict global warming to below 2 °C, preferably 1.5 °C when compared to pre-industrial era (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement). In COP26 nearly 200 countries participated to adopt the ‘Climate Pact’, which is directly related to Paris Agreement rulebook and is a way forward to keep the aims of the treaty alive in order to spike the decarbonisation of the global economy (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_6021). The Glasgow meeting made few progresses, such as cutting down on emissions, declaration on zero-emission vehicles to promote greener transport and acknowledging deforestation, but looking at the outcome of the conference, the evaluation reveals that the targets have not been achieved and overall the roadmap is not very clear. The signatories do not seem to be unified against the environmental menace, just like the nations have failed to show united front to COVID-19. There are four major goals that have been set up to achieve at COP26. First is to secure global net zero carbon by mid-century, keeping 1.5 °C within reach (https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/). To keep the first target within reach global emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 in comparison to levels of 2010 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03431-4). Climate change is no more a low-level issue but has become a life threatening global emergency. According to a study by Climate Action Tracker, even if the pledges announced at the COP26 meeting are enforced, still temperatures are predicted to rise by 2.4 °C up to 2100. This is much above the target of 1.5 °C accepted at the Paris Agreement and the effects of this are likely to be catastrophic in future (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03433-2). In fact, in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it has been revealed that the planet is going to witness the limit of 1.5 °C in early 2030s itself, triggering irreversible changes in our environment (such as flooding, drought, bushfires, and destruction of species) and called it ‘code red for humanity’ (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/). According to a global climate report published by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (2021), despite the fact that the world was stalled due to pandemic caused by novel corona virus (COVID-19) for last 2 years, yet the global mean temperature in 2021 i.e. between January and September was 1.08 ± 0.13 °C more than the 1850–1900 (pre-industrial era). The report also suggests that as a result of rising temperatures, global sea levels have also risen by 4.4 mm/year between 2013 and 2021 (State of the Global Climate 2021 https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10859). Oceans are known to produce 50% of atmospheric oxygen, absorb 25% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and trap 90% of excess heat in the climate system. To highlight the important connect between oceans and climate change, European Union (EU) called for ‘EU Ocean Day’ at COP26. However, acidification of oceans due to unprecedented rate of global warming and overexploitation of its resources remains to be marginalised at climate change negotiations thus hampering its sustainability (https://theconversation.com/cop26-failed-to-address-ocean-acidification-but-the-law-of-the-seas-means-states-must-protect-the-worlds-oceans-171949). Data reveals that 14% of coral species have already vanished; Arctic has lost ice sheets about six times the size of Germany in last 40 years and marine species are disappearing at double the rate than on land (https://ec.europa.eu/oceans-and-fisheries/news/cop-26-eu-ocean-day-highlights-role-oceans-tackling-climate-change-2021-10-29_en). To further translate the targets of COP26 into actions, one of the objective was to phase out coal and all nations to stop financing or giving subsidies to new coal-fired power plants. A study published in Nature by Welsby et al. (2021) suggests that in order to limit the increase of global temperatures within 1.5 °C, about 90% of coal and 60% of oil and methane must remain unextracted. The study further adds that global oil and gas production must decline by 3% every year by 2050. While more than 40 countries agreed to quit coal for power generation and 23 countries signed for ‘COP26 Coal to Clean Power Transition Agreement’ for the first time, some of the largest coal producers went missing from the agreement including Australia, China, India and United States (US). Hence, the final pact went from ‘phasing out coal’ to ‘phasing down coal’. This is a major setback to the goals of COP26 and it is unlikely to limit global warming to the 1.5 °C that is needed to avert disasters. With around 36% of the total human population residing in China and India (https://beef2live.com/story-world-population-ranking-countries-0-106889), these countries have their own worries to support their people, many of whom are in low income group. Hence, this requires prompt discussions and immediate action and support at international level. Similarly, deforestation is among the major drivers of climate change and past forest protections acts and agreements have failed to mitigate the loss of forest cover (https://www.dw.com/en/zero-deforestation-commitment-empty-promises-or-a-workable-plan/a-59700862). Forests cover about 31% of global land and one-third of the area is of primary origin (https://www.fao.org/state-of-forests/en/). Protecting forest loss and reversing unprecedented rate of deforestation is critical for climate change and biodiversity loss. Global Forest Watch report states that forests act as sinks and absorb a net of 7.6 billion metric tonnes CO2 per year, i.e. more than 1.5 times carbon emitted by US annually (https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/climate/forests-carbon-emissions-sink-flux/). Although more than 130 countries at COP26 have pledged to reverse deforestation by 2030, some of them backed out during the final proposal despite having a large proportion of forest covers that need immediate conservation measures. Situation is already grave and past record reveals that we have lost huge chunks of forest areas. State of World’s Forest Report by Food and Agricultural Organization FAO (2020) suggests that since 1990, forest loss has been estimated to be 420 million hectare, mainly due to land conversion by humans. According to a data of World Resource Institute, about 12.2 million hectares of forest cover was lost in 2020 only. Of this area, around 4.2 million hectares (an area equal to the size of Netherlands) was lost in humid tropical primary forests, which are extremely important zones of carbon sequestration and biodiversity. The loss resulted in carbon emissions of 2.64 Gt which is equivalent to emissions of 570 million cars (https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse). Another report by World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) suggests that in the last 50 years, we have lost approximately 17% of the Amazon rainforests mainly due to conversion of forest for cattle ranching. Other drivers include agriculture, poorly planned infrastructure and illegal logging (https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation-and-forest-degradation). In addition, forest fires are another major cause of forest loss. In this regard, a series of satellite images by Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP) estimate that around 2.2 million hectares of the Brazilian Amazon’s rainforest was burned in 2020. In fact, the report also reveals that there is a strong link between deforestation and forest fires and all of the major fires of 2021 broke out on land deforested in 2020, which was mainly due to anthropogenic reasons (such as agribusiness and cattle pastures) (https://news.mongabay.com/2021/06/the-brazilian-amazon-is-burning-again/). Land use change is one of the biggest issues which requires to be taken up seriously. In the same context, methane, the second biggest contributor to global warming after CO2, got a lot of attention at COP26. Although, methane concentration in atmosphere is just 2 parts per millions (PPM) as compared to CO2 (412 PPM), but it has capacity to trap heat 84 times more than CO2 thus making it a nuisance as far as global warming is concerned (https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/cop26-report-card-methane-s-role-in-global-warming-in-sharp-focus-for-the-first-time-80176). This was the first time that an event was dedicated on methane as ‘global methane pledge’ proposed by US and EU, to reduce methane emissions by 30% from levels of 2020 by 2030. The pledge was signed by 105 nations, but the top three methane producing countries (China, India and Russia) that are responsible for about 35% of methane in atmosphere did not sign it. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/14/infographic-what-has-your-country-pledged-at-cop26). Agriculture, land use and forestry have intricate linkages with global warming and are responsible for around quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. There were exp