Potential implications of sea-level rise for Croatia

Abstract

The Croatian coastline is long compared with the total national surface area. The coastal zone is mainly karstic and steep, with only one large alluvial plain, and contains approximately one-quarter of the total Croatian population. It is an important area for the national economy, particularly tourism and Mediterranean-type agriculture. Sea-level measurements at four points on the east Adriatic coast over the last 40 years indicate differential sea-level trends: from a rise between +0.53 and +0.96 mm/y to a decrease between -0.50 and -0.82 mm/y, a range mainly due to local tectonic activity. In this paper, the effects of assumed 20- and 86-cm sea-level rises on the coastal area are assessed by expert judgement. Coastal areas appear to have, in general, a low vulnerability to changes in sea level. However, some important sites, such as historical town centres, the alluvial plain of the Neretva River, and Vrana Lake on the island of Cres would be seriously endangered. Because of its great length, the entire Croatian coastline cannot be fully protected. Therefore, long-term national adaptation strategies to sea-level rise and plans of actions should be prepared and adopted, and monitoring of the consequences of sea-level rise and further research should be implemented.