Variance in water temperature as a factor in the modelling of starfish and mussel population density and diversity

Abstract

There is a general agreement when modelling ecosystems that the simplest solutions are generally the best. Comparing water tem-perature models that affect the feeding rate of starfish can show similar results when simulated under a simple scenario. When the system is mod-ified to include environmental change, water temperature models that have similar mean temperatures but differences in variance can produce variable results that correlate to the magnitude of their variance. This paper will examine and compare the effect that four water temperature models, each with similar mean temperatures, has on the predation of mussels by starfish, and how this affects population densities over time. Results find that water temperature models with comparable variance produce similar results; models that differ in variance produce dissimi-lar results, especially when environmental conditions capitalise on that variance. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.