Climate change and geographic ranges: The implications for Russian forests

Abstract

Forest ecosystems of the Russian Federation are expected to face high risks under environmental dynamics related to climate change. Analyzing the likely impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems is crucial in order to understand the potential adaptation of forests, to guide management strategies, as well as to preserve ecosystem services. With the aim to provide information on the possible modifications of geographic ranges, in the medium to long-term, for some Russian dominant forest species under climate change, we applied a Cascade Ensemble System (CES) approach. This consists of combining Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to six bias-corrected Earth System Model (ESM) projections, driven in turn by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) proxies of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, in order to obtain area maps of the future suitability for forest species. The suitability information is then flagged with information about its "likelihood," adopting the IPCC terminology based on a consensus among projections. Maps of aggregated changes were created in order to identify areas potentially more vulnerable to climate change. Results showed that possible impacts of climate change (either gain or loss) were diversified across species with a pronounced Northward shift of the ranges. Further analyses were performed at sub-regional levels revealing the potential for the Arctic Circle to become a refuge area for some conifer species. Species-aggregated change analyses spotted two distinct areas as more vulnerable to habitat change, in the central and south-east portions of the Russian territory. Our findings represent useful and immediate biogeographical information available to Russian policy makers to delineate conservation strategies and forest management plans.