Política fiscal, sustentabilidade da dívida pública e liquidez dos títulos: Uma análise para o Brasil

Abstract

This article evaluates such a fiscal effort and in particular the role played by the liquidity of the public debt bonds market to alleviate the effort. A model based on Edwards (2003) is applied to forecast the primary fiscal surplus in alternative scenarios of demand for the public debt bonds, real GDP growth, inflation target, real interest rate and changes in exchange rate. We focus on the impact of the changes in demand for the public debt bonds on the fiscal effort necessary to stabilize the debt-GDP ratio. Results show that such changes alter the response of the fiscal effort to GDP growth and changes in exchange rate. Although the other variables considered can affect the fiscal effort their response to GDP growth is constant.