Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

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Abstract

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is

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Mildon, Z. K., Roberts, G. P., Faure Walker, J. P., & Toda, S. (2019). Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard. Nature Communications, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10520-6

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