Modeling the response of terrestrial vegetation to climate change in the tropics

Abstract

The potential consequences of global climate change on the distribution of vegetation in the tropics are examined using the vegetation-climate classification model of Holdridge. The distribution of major biome-types was simulated under both current climate and four climate change scenarios based on general circulation models. The changes in global climate patterns have a major influence on the distribution of tropical ecosystems. All four scenarios predict a decrease in the areal coverage of desert. The scenarios differ, however, in their predictions of forest distribution. Differences among the scenarios are due to the general uncertainty with regard to predictions of precipitation patterns in the tropical zone. -from Authors