The risk factors and predictive modeling of mortality in patients with mental disorders combined with severe pneumonia

Abstract

Background: We explored clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality in patients with mental disorders combined with severe pneumonia and developed predictive models. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 161 patients with mental disorders combined with severe pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a psychiatric hospital from May 2020 to February 2023, and divided them into two groups according to whether they died or not, and analyzed their basic characteristics, laboratory results and treatments, etc. We analyzed the risk factors of patients' deaths using logistics regression, established a prediction model, and drew a dynamic nomogram based on the results of the regression analysis. Based on the results of regression analysis, a prediction model was established and a dynamic nomogram was drawn. Results: The non-survivor group and the survivor group of patients with mental disorders combined with severe pneumonia were statistically different in terms of age, type of primary mental illness, whether or not they were intubated, whether or not they had been bedridden for a long period in the past, and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scale, procalcitonin (PCT), albumin (ALB), hemoglobin (Hb), etc. Logistics regression analysis revealed the following: MoCA scale (OR = 0.932, 95% CI:0.872–0.997), age (OR = 1.077, 95%CI:1.029–1.128), PCT (OR = 1.078, 95% CI:10.006–10.155), ALB (OR = 0.971, 95%CI:0.893–1.056), Hb (OR = 0.971, 95% CI: 0.942–0.986) were statistically significant. The ROC curve showed that the model predicted patient death with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.827 with a sensitivity of 73.4% and a specificity of 80.4%. Conclusion: Low MoCA score, age, PCT, and low Hb are independent risk factors for death in patients with mental disorders with severe pneumonia, and the prediction model constructed using these factors showed good predictive efficacy.