Millstone or means to succeed: party-brand value, intra-party competition and personal vote-seeking

Abstract

Politicians will cultivate their personal vote if electoral rules foster competition within parties. We examine how the value of the party brand in the competition between parties affects how politicians attempt to build up their personal vote. Theoretically, if party valence is low, intra-party crowdedness intensifies, since a given number of candidates must vie for a smaller number of expected seats. In addition to this first mechanism, a poor party brand should generally (under weak assumptions about candidates’ beliefs) encourage less party-oriented and more person-oriented candidate campaigns. Empirically, we examine this argument in the context of the 2011 Irish legislative election. The incumbent Fianna Fáil struggled with its toxic party brand, as it was widely regarded as being responsible for the crash of the Celtic Tiger, whereas Fine Gael consistently led the polls. A content analysis of our own collection of campaign leaflets suggests that, in 2011, Fianna Fáil candidates ran much more personal campaigns than their Fine Gael counterparts, even when adjusting for the level of intra-party competition. For the campaign four years earlier, candidate survey data do not suggest such a difference. These findings suggest that low party valence contributes to personal vote-seeking.