Species distribution modelling of the genus Equisetum subgenus Equisetum for the territory of Russia

Abstract

Horsetails are a complex taxonomic and systematic group. Therefore, the study of the geographical distribution of these species is necessary for a better understanding of the phylogeny of this family. We concluded an analysis of the distribution of 5 species of horsetail of the subgenus Equisetum (Equisetum, Equisetaceae): E. arvense L., E. fluviatile L., E. palustre L., E. pratense Ehrh., E. sylvaticum L. using the maximum entropy method implemented in the MaxEnt program. Modeling was carried out using climate variables from the WorldClim global climate base. Simulation results show good simulation quality. In 3 out of 5 species, the AUC of the test sample was in the range of 0.9–1, and in 2 species — 0.8–0.9. In general, for most species, a plausible picture of their intended distribution has developed. The obtained models suggest that the territory of Russia is favorable enough for the growth of horsetails. Analysis of the contribution of 14 bioclimatic variables to the distribution of the studied species revealed that the most important variables are: annual mean temperature, isotermality, temperature seasonality, max temperature of warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of driest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and precipitation of coldest quarter.