Quantifying uncertainty in future ocean carbon uptake

Abstract

Attributing uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake between societal trajectory (scenarios), Earth System Model construction (structure), and inherent natural variation in climate (internal) is critical to make progress in identifying, understanding, and reducing those uncertainties. In the present issue of Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Lovenduski et al. (2016) disentangle these drivers of uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake over time and space and assess the resulting implications for the emergence timescales of structural and scenario uncertainty over internal variability. Such efforts are critical for establishing realizable and efficient monitoring goals and prioritizing areas of continued model development. Under recently proposed climate stabilization targets, such efforts to partition uncertainty also become increasingly critical to societal decision-making in the context of carbon stabilization.