Resilience Measurement System: A Fuzzy Approach

Abstract

The world retains its viability by the help of complex relations. Due to these complex relations, any disruption in the basic factors is felt in various dimensions at different levels of relevant systems. Governments, private sector actors, and international institutions are examples of organizations with complex relations. Owing to the complexity of organizations, they are required to be resilient regarding the sustainability of basic needs such as water and food resources, health services, communication, and transportation infrastructures in the face of shocks such as natural disasters, cyber-attacks, wars, and drought. To recover possible shocks, all stakeholders in exemplified organizations must continuously check their capacities and take proactive measures in the required areas that would contribute to the resilience. In this study, a prioritization and weight determination mechanism are developed to be used in a decision support system evaluating resilience capacity in the face of possible shocks. Within the scope of the study, fuzzy methods were preferred to reflect the resilience problem more realistically instead of deciding if an organization is resilient or not by one-nil approach. Therefore, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to determine the weights of possible shocks and to analyze the organization’s proximity to the optimum resilience level. In further studies, it is planned to use shock priority values in a system dynamics decision support model to be developed in the context of creating what-if scenarios and calculating total resilience value.