Evidence for a convergent slowdown in primate molecular rates and its implications for the timing of early primate evolution

Abstract

A long-standing problem in primate evolution is the discord between paleontological and molecular clock estimates for the time of crown primate origins: the earliest crown primate fossils are ∼56 million y (Ma) old, whereas molecular estimates for the haplorhine-strepsirrhine split are often deep in the Late Cretaceous. One explanation for this phenomenon is that crown primates existed in the Cretaceous but that their fossil remains have not yet been found. Here we provide strong evidence that this discordance is better-explained by a convergent molecular rate slowdown in early primate evolution. We show that molecular rates in primates are strongly and inversely related to three life-history correlates: body size (BS), absolute endocranial volume (EV), and relative endocranial volume (REV). Critically, these traits can be reconstructed from fossils, allowing molecular rates to be predicted for extinct primates. To this end, we modeled the evolutionary history of BS, EV, and REV using data from both extinct and extant primates. We show that the primate last common ancestor had a very small BS, EV, and REV. There has been a subsequent convergent increase in BS, EV, and REV, indicating that there has also been a convergent molecular rate slowdown over primate evolution. We generated a unique timescale for primates by predicting molecular rates from the reconstructed phenotypic values for a large phylogeny of living and extinct primates. This analysis suggests that crown primates originated close to the K-Pg boundary and possibly in the Paleocene, largely reconciling the molecular and fossil timescales of primate evolution.