Agriculture

Abstract

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change. The severity of impacts on agricultural systems usually varies by geographic, natural, and socioeconomic factors. We match results from a bio-physical process model with the climate change scenario of the COIN (Cost of Inaction) project to derive climate induced yield impacts on major crops and permanent grassland in Austria. An economic calculation is applied to estimate average annual changes of production values and costs for the periods 2016–2045 and 2036–2065. Results feed into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess economy-wide effects. Uncertainties are addressed in the study and are mainly due to high spatial and sectoral aggregation as well as the unknown autonomous adaptation behaviour of farmers. Our analysis indicates moderately higher outputs and value added at the sector level. This results in a positive impact on the rest of the Austrian economy. The aggregated results conceal adverse regional and farm type specific impacts.