Household micro-simulation model considering observed family histories in a suburban new town

Abstract

During the past several decades, many new towns have emerged in suburbs along new railway lines in Japan. Numerous problems in those towns are emerging as their population age. This study aimed to build a micro-simulation model of households to estimate residents’ assessments of quality of life in a suburban new town of a metropolis. Approximately 1500 households were sampled to collect survey data. Using census data and the survey data, base-year household microdata were estimated using the agent-based synthesis method. The survey data provided information on household histories after taking up residence in the present house. A microsimulation model was built using the household history data and simulations were performed to predict household transitions in the study area in five-year increments between 2015 and 2045.