COUNTER-CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRI ES: DOES GOVERNANCE HINDER?

Abstract

Fiscal policy is an effective instrument in helping governments in developed countries overcome a recession with a high unemployment rate or a hot economy with a high inflation rate to keep the economy on a stable path. Does governance contribute significantly to keeping this goal in these countries? The study looks for an answer by empirically investigating the role of governance in the output gap – fiscal policy relationship for a group of 27 developed countries between 2002 and 2019. It employs the difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimators and the PMG estimator for estimation and robustness check. The results provide some interesting findings. Firstly, both public spending and government revenue are counter-cyclical, confirming the counter-cyclical fiscal policy in developed countries. Secondly, governance hinders the counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The findings imply some crucial policies for governments in developed countries in running the fiscal policy.